Multi asset fund update: Muted global growth but softening inflation

Our multi asset funds benefitted from an overweight position in equities over the last 18 months. With growth muted and inflation dropping, our proprietary Investment Clock is edging into Recovery, the stage of the cycle when growth is improving (if slowly), and interest rates can begin to fall as inflation weakens.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a soft-landing play out in the US; it has been the best performing major economy. Europe and China have patchier growth pictures but prospects for some improvement. Given this backdrop, we are positioned positively in our multi asset funds.

The Investment Clock enters recovery

Enters Recovery

Source: RLAM. For illustrative purpose only. Trail shows monthly readings based on global growth and inflation indicators.

Cross asset

• Equities: overweight given a resilient macro environment
• Commodities: underweight given a still soggy nominal global growth backdrop in China
• Property: slightly underweight as the UK economy lacks positive momentum and interest rates are yet to fall
• Government bonds: broadly neutral given more attractive yields now and interest rate cuts ahead
• Credit: constructive, but watchful for signs of stress

Equity regions

• Overweight US equities given superior economic performance in America, compared to Europe and China, and the strength of tech-related earnings
• Overweight Japanese equities which have done well on yen weakness
• Underweight UK, Europe and Asia Pacific given relative economic performance
• Neutral on emerging markets given Chinese property debt issues and disappointing growth rates

Currencies

• Underweight the US dollar as interest rates are likely to have peaked
• Overweight sterling and the euro, where rates are likely to stay higher for longer

Sectors

• Overweight the interest rate sensitive consumer discretionary sector
• Underweight energy and defensive utilities
• Neutral on technology given elevated valuations (but not underweight given growth potential)

Where we stand

Overweight global and Japan stocks, and Discretionary sector

Underweight commodities, UK and European shares, Energy sector, and CHF

Weightings may vary according to tactical asset allocation and the Fund may invest outside of indicated asset classes as the manager sees fit. The views expressed are the author's own and do not constitute investment advice.

Source: RLAM. Tactical positions as of 1 March 2024.

This is a financial promotion and is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.