ClockWise: Overweight equities on soft landing hopes

Our multi asset funds benefitted from an overweight position in equities over 2023 and we held onto this position in January. With growth muted and inflation dropping, the Investment Clock is edging into Reflation, the stage of the cycle when central banks usually cut rates.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a soft landing play out in the US, where inflation looks to be coming back under control. Given this backdrop, we are positioned positively in our multi asset funds.

Chart 1: The Investment Clock tips into Reflation

Source: RLAM. For illustrative purposes only. Trail shows monthly readings based on global growth and inflation indicators.

Cross-asset

• Equities: overweight given a resilient macro environment
• Commodities: underweight given disappointing Chinese demand and a weak nominal growth backdrop
• Property: slightly underweight as the UK economy lacks positive momentum and interest rates are yet to fall
• Government bonds: broadly neutral, having been underweight 18 months ago when government yields were close to zero
• Credit: constructive, but watchful for signs of stress

Equity regions

• Overweight US equities relative to other developed markets given the superior economic performance in US compared to Europe and the UK, as well as the strength of tech-related earnings
• Overweight Japanese equities, which have done well on yen weakness
• Underweight UK, Asia Pacific and emerging markets, on economic weakness and China property debt issues

Currencies

• Underweight the US dollar as interest rates are likely to have peaked and global growth is improving
• Overweight sterling and the euro, where rates are likely to stay higher for longer

Sectors

• Overweight the interest rate sensitive consumer discretionary sector
• Underweight energy and defensive utilities

Chart 2: Where we stand

Overweight global and Japanese stocks, and high yield; Underweight commodities, UK and European shares, and US dollar

Source: RLAM. Tactical positions as at 30 January 2024. Weightings may vary according to tactical asset allocation and the Fund may invest outside of indicated asset classes as the manager sees fit.

This is a financial promotion and is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.